Storms Like Fay Give Hurricanes A Bad Name

Having lived in Florida over 25 years we have seen everything from weak tropical storms to strong hurricanes but until they actually make landfall we have never been able to predict if or when they would hit or miss us. Nor have we actually known prior to any storm actually coming ashore how dangerous a storm it would be. Well, even though Fay has come ashore, we still don’t.

If you have not been following Fay, she arrived much farther south than originally predicted. The first projected path showed the Tampa Bay region as its target, then the potential landfall area became Sarasota, then Ft. Myers and eventually Naples, which turned out be the closest and best “guess”.

Tropical storms and hurricanes get their energy from warm tropical waters and lose their energy once over land. Not Fay. This storm, which as of this writing has yet to reach 74 mph, the wind speed needed to be named a hurricane. Fay came ashore with winds of approximately 60 mph. But Fay has done something no meteorologist in the Tampa Bay area can remember. She has gained intensity over land and her highest over land recorded wind speed around the center of the storm so far has been 65mph. Strangest of all we have seen recorded video of satellite photos briefly showing an eye wall while Fay was near Lake Okeechobee. Eye walls typically can only occur inside a hurricane. One of our TV meteorologists with 25 years experience stated this storm may become a dissertation for someone’s PhD.

I started writing this article hours ago but delayed completing it because Fay slowed and changed course so uncharacteristically that our local weather experts and The National Hurricane Center are still not certain where Fay will go next. The current path takes Fay out into the Atlantic where she is expected to become a category 1 hurricane, then make a left turn due to a high pressure ridge in the Atlantic that will push her back toward the center of Florida, again. The Tampa Bay area, we I live, has had no rain and we have experienced nothing out of the ordinary in terms of wind gusts, yet. While this storm was supposed to be gone by now, it is lingering and poses a threat to even more people it has not met thus far. The damage from this tropical storm looks and feels like that of a hurricane to those it has affected in South Florida, which came as a surprise to the folks that live anywhere where Fay has traveled today.

Because science has not yet been able to predict, with any degree of certainty, the actual path a tropical storm or hurricane may take, there has been tendency by local government officials, and even the local media, to hype all approaching storms in the name of saving lives. Nobody wants to underestimate how dangerous a particular storm may turn out to be. But when storms don’t live up to expectations they can create problems in the future. Folks that evacuated or purchased extra batteries, water and dry food only to find out they did not need to do so may not prepare properly the next time a storm approaches and in some cases and this could lead to a fatal decision. I saw several interviews during this evening’s local news showing disgruntled folks who evacuated and feel they did so unnecessarily.

While my wife and I are grateful Fay did not live up to her advanced billing by slowing down and changing course away from where we live, we still feel bad for those who remained in her path. The good news this has not been a strong, killer storm. But while Fay has remained a tropical storm and has not yet made it to hurricane status this story is not over. And the bad news is the next time Floridians get the exact same type of watches and warnings, many who may have prepared for this storm may not prepare for the next and that could prove to be a fatal mistake.

So although I lowered the water in my pool in anticipation of a huge rain storm, brought in my all my pool furniture and removed anything in my yard that could fly in a strong wind I now have to take the time to put everything back. And, depending what happens in the next 48 hours, I may have to fill the pool. Fay may take that left turn I mentioned earlier, come back in our direction and bring a lot of rain.

Either way, will I prepare in exactly the same way the next time we get a hurricane watch or warning? You bet. Will I be disappointed if it does not live up to expectations? No way. Tomorrow or the next day I will turn on the Bee Gees 1970s hit while working on my lanai and turn it up so even the neighbors can hear it, Staying Alive…..